Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.769559 12.359998 14.077808 16.067768 18.306071 20.742375 23.591373
2025-04-13 7.946458 9.981636 12.357131 15.321588 18.907832 23.091083 28.324200
2025-04-20 6.916709 9.199414 11.996861 15.652604 20.276252 25.899340 33.221808
2025-04-27 6.116304 8.563935 11.696930 15.961583 21.569535 28.640952 38.172951
2025-05-04 5.358405 7.855441 11.177709 15.865383 22.242766 30.540297 42.061960
2025-05-11 4.696467 7.187473 10.623201 15.634460 22.667756 32.083132 45.512344
2025-05-18 4.227965 6.730434 10.297132 15.657970 23.395454 34.020296 49.539574
2025-05-25 3.876278 6.400878 10.110143 15.841351 24.327684 36.253105 54.050744
2025-06-01 3.521901 6.026315 9.815609 15.827844 24.950331 38.053920 58.011290
2025-06-08 3.180458 5.634506 9.455194 15.674680 25.335671 39.506713 61.511220
2025-06-15 2.944947 5.388468 9.294659 15.805101 26.137475 41.585290 65.996451
2025-06-22 2.806411 5.289008 9.354470 16.276904 27.478031 44.514273 71.861131
2025-06-29 2.549872 4.967426 9.034365 16.125869 27.848906 46.018451 75.690316
2025-07-06 2.202527 4.449990 8.343848 15.311494 27.099867 45.745719 76.762283
2025-07-13 2.089755 4.347267 8.351602 15.665602 28.268549 48.523802 82.707793
2025-07-20 1.978244 4.235278 8.332130 15.966565 29.357646 51.214782 88.619676
2025-07-27 1.819445 4.015617 8.100088 15.873189 29.763099 52.801965 92.802966
2025-08-03 1.657453 3.772707 7.804481 15.641187 29.907406 53.952695 96.304447
2025-08-10 1.543466 3.615647 7.656312 15.665046 30.495565 55.861388 101.127933
2025-08-17 1.458248 3.509980 7.597445 15.848382 31.372815 58.290124 106.911981
2025-08-24 1.357780 3.361263 7.441825 15.834910 31.886280 60.106839 111.715606
2025-08-31 1.251275 3.188076 7.222867 15.681671 32.127812 61.450755 115.745068
2025-09-07 1.181971 3.091509 7.151819 15.812150 32.901988 63.758331 121.529619